Expert Elicitation to Estimate the Size of an Iceberg based on the Tip: Some Methodological Challenges in Determining the Magnitude of White-Collar Crime

Petter Gottschalk

BI Norwegian Business School, Norway

Lars Gunnesdal

Manifest Center for Social Analysis, Norway

Abstract:

Expert elicitation is a research method designed to make estimations in areas where we have no knowledge, only indicators and experiences. By systematic interviews of experts, we tried to estimate the magnitude of white-collar crime in Norway. On our way to a final answer, we were faced with a number of obstacles in our research design. This article reports from our research journey by communicating our learning from methodological challenges when applying expert elicitation to estimate the size of an iceberg based on knowledge about the tip of the iceberg. In particular, participation refusals and response confusions are discussed. This article presents results from a study where we engaged an expert panel to estimate a number of parameters that can determine the total amount of money lost yearly because of white-collar crime.

Keyword:

Response Rate; Expert Elicitation; Interview; Survey; Estimation; WhiteCollar Crime.